Predictions for the Ottawa Real Estate Market in 2019
Here is where we try and predict where the real estate market will trend in 2019, we give you our opinion, followed by predictions from other trusted sources such as CMHC, Remax, CREA as well as Royal LePage. See where the market is right now by viewing this months Market Update here
Patrick’s Predictions for 2019: Strong sales and more listings
2018 should finish the year with unit sales up 3.2 %. The average sold price will be about $408,000 for an increase of 3.8 % over last year.
I see 2019 being similar to this year with units up about 4% and prices will increase 4% to 5%. I believe inventory levels will increase slightly over 2018, freeing up more homes for the pent up buying demand.
We are looking at some additional employment in the east end with Amazon adding about 600 albeit lower paying jobs. Ford has announced about 300 new jobs to the Kanata tech sector which are primarily going to be higher paying engineering positions.
Federal government employment looks solid for 2019 as we will be in an election year and the Liberals will not cut federal jobs in vote rich urban Ottawa. Also, the feds have shown no desire to cut reckless spending, tackle the deficit and national debt, so cutting federal employee positions is not on the table.
The wild card begins to show it’s face toward the end of 2019 or early 2020. Will the recession start then? Yes, it is coming. Trump has unnecessarily thrown gasoline onto an already hot USA economy. Reduced income (taxes) and record setting debt will bring an ugly end to their party. It will burn out and the ashes will leave lost jobs and less demand for Canadian products and resources.
With Canadian low interest rates, high debt, increasing deficits, we will have a reduced number of tools to fight the recession, as we did in 2009. Remember, that to was triggered by the American subprime mortgage fiasco. Otherwise Ottawa should see its traditional slow steady increase for 2019.
Canadian Real Estate Association Predictions
CREA Says that Home prices in Eastern Ontario, Quebec, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and Prince Edward Island are expected to continue rising with market balance steadily becoming firmer.
ReMax & Royal LePage Predictions
In their annual home sale price reports, Royal LePage is forecasting the capital will see a 2.5 per cent increase to the median home sale prices while Re/Max is predicting a 4 per cent jump in sale prices.
Canadian Mortgage & Housing Corporation CMHC Predictions
Ottawa-Gatineau is one of the few markets in Canada in which housing resale volumes and prices have risen continuously over the past three years, the agency is predicting that trend to continue into 2020.
Resales are expected to end up between 17,500 and 19,200 units. Prices are anticipated to range between $417,000 and $433,000.
For 2020, CMHC is predicting resales in the range of 17,900 and 20,000 units. The resale price range for 2020 is expected to be between $431,000 and $453,000.
Citing Ottawa-Gatineau’s decades-low unemployment rate and its high average income bolstered by an abundance of federal government and tech workers, CMHC says the region’s residential real estate market is primed for healthy growth for the next few years.
“Ottawa has outperformed because of a healthy economy and the city’s relative affordability,” the report says. “Employment, especially full-time job creation, as well as earnings growth, have been robust since 2016 and have supported home ownership demand despite rising prices.
The agency also says a significant price gap between new and resold homes makes the region’s resale market attractive, especially to first-time buyers, with more affordable options such as row homes and condos experiencing the strongest sales growth.
But CMHC also warns that rising interest rates and government cutbacks in light of rising federal deficits could dampen its robust growth forecasts.